I want you to imagine you’re playing in a basketball game.
You’re on the bench getting some rest, but your team is really heating up. A deep three goes in, followed by a turnover, and a few more quick buckets.
You do some quick math and realize your team just put together a 12-2 run in the last 3-4 minutes of the game. It’s an away game and the home crowd is quieter than it’s been all game. Your opponents call a timeout to regroup.
Your team is fired up, yelling and high-fiving on their way into the team huddle, and rightfully so. It seems like the adjustments made at halftime are really coming together.
You clap. You cheer. You ride the wave of the moment because it is real and it is worth celebrating.
And then you look at the scoreboard. You are still down 46 points. This reality check hits you like a brick to the face. It sobers you up a bit. You realize that momentum is on your side, but you all still have a long way to go.
That is the Catholic Church in America in April of 2026.
This Easter saw numbers that should genuinely excite every Catholic in this country. The Archdiocese of Newark welcomed 1,701 people into the Church, a 72% increase since 2023. Los Angeles welcomed over 8,500. Boston went from an average of 250 to 300 converts per year to over 680. The Archdiocese of Oklahoma City was expecting a 57% increase in unbaptized people becoming Catholic. According to our CEO at Hallow, Alex Jones, more than 80% of dioceses are seeing an average year-over-year growth of 38% in OCIA enrollment. The University of Illinois campus alone went from 50 students entering the Church last Easter to 120 this year.
This is a genuine 12-to-2 run. The momentum is real. The Holy Spirit is moving in ways that are measurable, documented, and undeniable.
And yet, we are still down 46 points. But stay with me. This article is meant to encourage and challenge you, not just rain on your Easter parade.
What the Scoreboard Actually Shows
Here is the honest picture of where the Church stands in America right now, because I think it is important to name it clearly before we talk about what to do.
For every one person who converts to Catholicism, somewhere between six and ten cradle Catholics leave the Church. The General Social Survey has been tracking this for fifty years. In 1973, 84% of those raised Catholic still identified as Catholic as adults. By 2022, that number had fallen to 62%. One out of every three people raised Catholic has disaffiliated themselves from the Church.
Weekly Mass attendance among cradle Catholics tells an even starker story. In 1973, about 34% of those raised Catholic were still attending Mass weekly as adults. By 2002, it had dropped to 20%. By 2022, it had fallen to 11%. We are losing nine out of ten cradle Catholics when it comes to active practice of the faith.
The conversion numbers we are celebrating this Easter, as genuinely exciting as they are, represent a rebound from a long decline. From 2000 to 2019, the average American diocese saw a 41% decrease in the number of adults entering the Church. What we are witnessing now is a reversal of that trend, not yet a net gain against the broader losses the Church has sustained over decades.
I am not saying this to be a Grinch during this beautiful Easter season. I am saying it because the team that is down 46 points does not get to coast after a 12 to 2 run. It has to keep pressing, and it needs to be strategic about it. The naive optimist says, "Things are going well; let us enjoy this.” The serious leader says, things are moving in the right direction, now let us figure out what we have to do next.
Why Some Parishes Have Dozens and Others Have One
Here is a question worth asking out loud: given the extraordinary momentum we are seeing in some parts of the Church, why are so many parishes still bringing in only one or two converts a year?
My wife and I volunteered for two years in OCIA at Our Lady of Lourdes in Denver. It is a parish known throughout the Archdiocese for its conversion numbers. Dozens every year, consistently, long before this current wave of interest in the faith made headlines. We were there to witness it firsthand, and what we witnessed taught us something important.
Almost every story we heard from people entering the Church sounded like this:
"My sister invited me.”
“My boyfriend is Catholic and started bringing me here.”
“A coworker kept inviting me to events at the parish, and I finally showed up one Sunday.”
“A friend took me to adoration, and I had an experience I could not explain.”
The difference between a parish that brings in fifty converts a year and a parish that brings in one is almost never the quality of the OCIA program. It is the culture of the parishioners. It is whether the people in the pews see evangelization as something the priest does or as something every baptized Catholic is commissioned to do. It is whether Sunday Mass is the end of their Catholic week or the center of a Catholic life that overflows into their relationships, their conversations, and their invitations.
There are parishes in Denver that sit full on Sunday mornings and have brought in one or two converts in years. The same city. Similar demographics. Vastly different outcomes. The difference is not the zip code. It is the intentionality of the people inside the building.
Every parish that has not had a meaningful number of conversions in years owes itself an honest conversation about why. Not a defensive one, an honest one. Because, as Pope Francis said, we are supposed to be a field hospital for sinners, not a museum for saints. If people are not finding their way in, it is worth asking whether the door feels open to those who are exploring or new to the faith.
We Have a Bigger Retention Problem Than a Conversion Problem
I want to address something that rarely gets mentioned in the excitement around conversion numbers, because I think it is the most important strategic challenge the Church faces right now.
Getting people in is only the beginning. Keeping them is the harder and equally urgent work.
The anecdotal reports from OCIA directors around the country suggest that somewhere between 50% and as many as 90% of converts stop attending Mass regularly within a year of their initiation. CARA's broader research paints a somewhat more encouraging picture, suggesting that around 84% of OCIA converts still identify as Catholic years later. But identification is a low bar. The harder question is whether they are practicing, growing, and passing the faith on to their children.
Megachurches chase numbers for numbers’ sake. That is not our model, and it should never become our model. Our theology holds that the sacraments confer grace, that the Eucharist is the source and summit of the Christian life, that membership in the Body of Christ is not a lifestyle choice but an ontological reality with eternal consequences. If we welcome people into that reality and then fail to form them in it, we have not served them. We have given them a certificate and sent them on their way.
What keeps converts in the Church? Overwhelmingly, the same thing that brought them in. Relationship. A sponsor who stayed in contact after Holy Saturday. A community that made room for them. A parish that treated the period after Easter as the beginning of formation rather than the end of the program. The Easter season is not supposed to be an afterthought. It is meant to be the continuation of a lifelong journey in which the Church is committed to walking alongside its newest members.
If your parish welcomed a dozen people into the Church last Saturday and has no plan for what to do with them between now and Pentecost, that is the most important problem to solve before next Easter.
One of the biggest shortcomings of many formation programs is around the spiritual pillar of prayer. The need for relationship in the ongoing practice of the faith mirrors the primary symbol of our faith: the cross. It must go both vertically and horizontally. We have a real human need to develop intimacy with God and real friendship with one another. The best parishes and the best spiritual leaders teach us how to do both while also cultivating an environment and culture that facilitates transformational relationships upward and outward.
The Leaky Bucket: Catholic Education and the Children We Are Losing
There is no point in celebrating the water flowing in if we have not fixed the holes in the bucket.
The data on cradle Catholics leaving the faith is sobering in its timing. Nearly half of those who leave Catholicism do so before they turn 18. Another 30% leave between 18 and 23. That means roughly 80% of the Catholics we lose, we lose before they reach age 24. The attrition is happening in our schools, in our religious education programs, and in our homes. And it is happening at a rate that dwarfs our current conversion gains.
This is where the Church's most important work is happening and where, too often, we are losing the most ground. Catholic schools and religious education programs that do not form genuinely intentional disciples, that teach the faith as a set of facts to memorize rather than a relationship to enter, are not keeping our children. They are giving them a credential and a reason to check out.
What the research consistently shows is that the young Catholics who stay are the ones who had a genuine encounter with Jesus Christ, not just exposure to Catholic content. They had an adult in their life, a parent, a teacher, a youth minister, who lived the faith visibly and authentically in front of them. They were given something to sacrifice for rather than just something to sit through.
This is not a program problem. It is a discipleship problem. And it starts in the home long before it reaches the classroom.
The Question of Openness to Life
If we want the Church to grow, Catholics need to have more children.
The culture has done an extraordinarily effective job of convincing Catholics, including many practicing, well-intentioned Catholics, that two children is the responsible number. That being said, beyond two, you are being reckless, burdening the environment, or simply failing to prioritize your own comfort and career. The Church's actual teaching on openness to life is treated even within many Catholic families as an optional addendum rather than a central and countercultural command.
I am not arguing that every Catholic family must have ten children or that there are never serious reasons to space or limit births. The Church has never said that, and neither have I. What I am saying is that the casual cultural default of stopping at one or two, without any serious prayer or discernment, without any real engagement with what the Church actually teaches about the gift of life, is something that deserves to be named and examined.
I reflect back to my experience in a Catholic grade school in the early 2000s and remember seeing the families with 4-5 children as the “big families”. Most of my closest friends, and I’m talking 80-90%, were from families with 1-2 children. The adventurous parents dared to have 3. And wouldn’t you know it, the same culture that had a closed-mindedness on children also had immense flexibility on divorce. And the fruits of these households are a very low % of children (and their parents) practicing the faith as adults.
Every child raised in a faithful Catholic home is a missionary in the next generation. The demographic reality of the Church in America is inseparable from the question of whether Catholic families are open to the life God may be calling them to receive.
The Challenge: Stop Watching the Run and Get in the Game
I want to close with something direct, because I think the Church's greatest structural weakness right now is not a lack of enthusiasm. It is a surplus of spectators.
Passive Catholics are not going to win this. They never have. The parishes producing dozens of converts are not doing it because they have a better building or a more dynamic pastor (although this does help). They are doing it because the people in the pews have decided that evangelization is their job too. They invite people. They bring friends to events. They make room at their dinner tables and in their lives for people who are searching. They volunteer for OCIA. They sponsor converts and stay in contact after Easter. They give their time and their money to a mission they actually believe in.
The momentum we are riding right now is a gift. It is the work of the Holy Spirit, and it is real. But momentum without strategy dissipates. A 12-to-2 run means nothing if the team calls it a win and heads to the locker room.
Here is what I am asking you to do. Pick one thing from this list and commit to it before Pentecost:
Volunteer for your parish's OCIA program next year. Contact your director now, before you forget. The people who walked into the Easter Vigil as strangers and left as Catholics needed someone to walk the journey with them. Be that person for someone next year.
Invite someone. Not to a debate about Catholicism. Not to a lecture on doctrine. Just to Mass. Just to an event. Just to something that opens a door. Most of the people who entered the Church at Easter this weekend did so because someone who loved them extended a simple invitation.
Commit to your parish. Not just Sunday Mass. One additional commitment. A ministry. A volunteer role. Something that roots you in a community deeply enough that you begin to see its needs as your needs.
Engage actively with your children's formation. Not just driving them to religious ed. Praying with them at home. Talking about the faith around the dinner table. Living it visibly enough for them to see what it looks like to take it seriously.
The scoreboard is real. The deficit is real. But so is the run we are on. And teams that are down 46 points with genuine momentum do not quit. They push. They organize. They get strategic. And sometimes, against every expectation, they win.
What is one thing you are committing to this Easter season to grow the Church in your community? Drop it in the comments.